Finland and Sweden will announce this weekend whether they will join NATO

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Finland and Sweden are set to reveal later this week whether they will join NATO.

The two Nordic countries have reversed decades of military neutrality since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Finland’s president and the country’s MPs will announce their decision on Thursday, with Sweden’s ruling party set to follow suit on Sunday.

President Sauli Niinistö and parliamentarians in Helsinki are more than likely to confirm the country’s entry to the Western military alliance on May 12.

Swedish prime minister Andersson (left) and Finnish PM Sanna Marin (right) have not disclosed whether they are in favour of their countries joining NATO, but are thought to be supporters

The Finnish and Swedish leaders (left and right, respectively) visited German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at his Meseberg retreat outside Berlin last week. Mr Scholz said the two countries can ‘count on our support’ if they decide to join NATO.

Sweden’s entry decision on May 15 is considered less certain than Finland’s, but remains highly likely.

NATO Secretary Gen. Stoltenberg said the countries are the bloc’s ‘closest partners’

Finland and Sweden have historically avoided NATO membership despite close Western alignment in an effort to appease nearby Russia.

But public opinion in both countries has swung in favour of joining since the invasion of Ukraine.

Finnish PM Sanna Marin said last week: ‘Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the security policy situation in such a way that there is no going back to the way things were.’

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the two countries will be ‘welcomed with open arms’ – and could become members ‘quickly’.

All 30 NATO countries must assent to any new member joining the bloc.

In most cases, that requires a vote in the nations’ parliaments.

But Mr Stoltenberg told a press conference in Brussels last month: ‘I am confident that there are ways to bridge that interim period in a way which is good enough and works for both Finland and Sweden.’

Finland would become the sixth NATO member to share a land border with Russian territory, joining Estonia, Latvia and Norway, plus Kaliningrad annex neighbours Poland and Lithuania

He also described the countries as ‘our closest partners’, adding: ‘They are strong and mature democracies.

Why are Sweden and Finland not in NATO?

Both Finland and Sweden have been militarily non-aligned since WWII.

Sweden maintained its policy of neutrality – which had begun in the early 19th century – throughout the war wanting to avoid being drawn into a conflict that was engulfing the nearby powers of Germany and the Soviet Union.

Instead, Sweden profited from its neutrality by exporting iron ore to the Nazis and sharing military intelligence with the Allies and training their refugee soldiers.

Meanwhile Finland changed sides in the conflict, first being invaded by Joseph Stalin and assisting the Nazis, before fighting against Hitler’s troops.

When NATO was formed in 1949 for a Western military alliance, Sweden decided not to join and continue its neutrality, introducing a security policy that secured its non-alignment in peace and neutrality in war.

In 1994, Stockholm decided to join the NATO programme Partnership for Peace (PfP), aimed to build trust between member states and other European countries, but until now it has not signalled a desire to fully join the alliance.

Finland is also a PfP member but has similarly stated its desire to remain neutral since the war.

The EU member state was part of the Russian Empire and won independence during the 1917 Russian revolution but it nearly lost it fighting the Soviet Union in World War Two.

Having been invaded by Russia in 1939 and sharing a long border with the superpower, Finland wanted to stay out of future conflicts, giving it the freedom to maintain a strong relationship with Moscow and the West while enjoying a free market economy.

‘Their armed forces meet NATO standards and are interoperable with NATO forces.

‘We train together, we exercise together, and we have also worked with Finland and Sweden in many different missions and operations.’

Sweden has been politically neutral in Europe since Viking traders needed Russian permission to use its rivers for business dealings.

Stockholm has not been involved in a war since 1814, the longest period of peace of any nation.

Finland has been technically neutral since 1956.

Yet both countries have provided military aid to Ukraine since the start of Moscow’s invasion.

Finland shares an 810-mile border with Russia.

Sweden does not border Russia.

But its entry bid concerns the Kremlin as Russia will be losing a neutral country in its proximity.

If Russia launched military campaigns in either country once they have joined NATO, it would trigger collective defence clause Article 5.

This means all NATO countries have been invaded.

The clause states: ‘The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all…’

President Niinistö revealed on Friday that Finland’s NATO decision is getting ‘finishing touches’.

Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson is thought to be in favour of NATO entry.

She told party members within a week of Russia’s invasion that ‘Sweden will be more vulnerable if we do not become members.’

Ms Andersson added: ‘If Sweden is attacked then we have better opportunities to get support from other countries, but you also give security guarantees.’

Putin has promised ‘consequences’ and said he will move Russian nuclear weapons to the nearby Baltic Sea in retaliation.

A Russian lawmaker warned last month Finland would be asking for ‘the destruction of their country’.

Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov said the move is a ‘terrible tragedy’.

Kremlin foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in April: ‘Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries.

‘Their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and some military and political consequences.’

Ms Zakharova also said last month: ‘Under the auspices of the US, Brussels has been pulling Sweden and Finland into its structures for a while.

‘We made all our warnings – both publicly and via bilateral channels. They know about this, so there are no surprises. They were informed about everything, what it will lead to.’

Ex-president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Putin’s influential Security Council, suggested Russian nukes will be moved to Russian Baltic annex Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania.

Ms Andersson (left) and Ms Marin (right) met for NATO discussions in Stockholm on April 13

Russia has vowed to move nukes to Baltic annex Kaliningrad if Finland and Sweden join NATO

Mr Medvedev said: ‘[If Finland and Sweden join NATO] there can no longer be talk about the Baltic’s non-nuclear status.’

And Putin warned in December that further NATO integration would prompt a ‘military-technical’ by the Kremlin.

NATO’s Article 5 clause

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Source: NATO

He told a meeting of defence ministers: ‘If our Western colleagues continue the obviously aggressive stance, we will take appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps.’

President Putin added that Moscow did not want ‘armed conflicts or bloodshed’ but that Russia ‘has every right’ to defend itself against perceived security threats.

Finland, Sweden and Denmark have had their airspaces violated repeatedly by Russia since the beginning of 2022.

Moscow military excursions into the countries have increased since the invasion of Ukraine.

Last week a Russian Mi-17 transport chopper flew 2-3 miles inside the Finnish border, according to the country’s Ministry of Defence.

‘The aircraft type is a Mi-17 helicopter and the depth of the suspected violation is about four to five kilometres’, a ministry spokesman told AFP.

Moscow forces also flew into Denmark earlier this month, prompting Copenhagen’s foreign minister to summon the Russian Ambassador.

Minister Jeppe Kofod tweeted on May 1: ‘Another Russian violation of Danish airspace. That is completely unacceptable and extremely worrying in the current situation.’

An uptick in Russian cyberattacks is also considered likely if Finland and Sweden join NATO.

President Niinistö warned in March that Helsinki could face mass cyber attacks and border violations if it enters the bloc.

The president said: ‘We don’t even know all the possibilities for hybrid influencing that someone may invent. The entire world of information technology is vulnerable.’

When Russia last tried to seize Finland… and failed

More than 80 years ago, the small Finland took on the might of the Soviet Union when dictator Joseph Stalin ordered an invasion after its government refused to give up substantial territory.

The Winter War of 1939-1940 – which began less than three months after the start of the Second World War – saw Finland’s forces use innovative tactics to defy Russia’s hopes for a quick, emphatic victory that could have landed Stalin control of the whole country.

Instead, Soviet troops – who numbered around one million – were fiercely resisted for nearly three months, with dramatic photos showing how vehicles and equipment had to be abandoned in the face of the opposition and freezing conditions.

In that time, Russia suffered more than 300,000 casualties – including 126,900 deaths – and lost up to 3,500 tanks and around 500 aircraft.

By comparison, Finland lost 25,900 men out of an original force of around 300,000.

Stories of Finnish heroics include that of a Finnish farmer who became the deadliest sniper in history after killing 505 Soviet troops.

In the fighting, Finland also pioneered the use of the improvised grenade the Molotov cocktail, which was named after the Soviet Union’s foreign minister.

Ultimately however, the sheer numerical superiority of the Soviet Union’s forces took its toll and Finland’s government was eventually forced to sign a peace agreement that forced them to give up around ten per cent of their territory.

Despite the defeat, Finland emerged with its sovereignty intact and its international reputation enhanced, whilst the Soviet Union was kicked out of the League of Nations and was condemned by other world leaders for the illegal invasion.

Finnish sniper Simo Häyhä emerged a hero after racking up the most sniper kills in the history of warfare.

Aged 33 when the war broke out, Häyhä quickly acquired a fearsome reputation, striking the enemy unseen and unheard from hidden positions up to 300 yards from his target.

Nicknamed The White Death, Häyhä was a prime target for the Soviets, who targeted him with mortars and heavy artillery to halt his killing spree, which once claimed 25 men in one day.

Finland then allied with Nazi Germany against the Soviets in what was known as the Continuation War in 1941, with Helsinki trying to retake its lost territories.

After a ceasefire was agreed in the Moscow Armistice in 1944, Finland was ordered to expel Nazi troops stationed in the country, prompting the Lapland War with Germany.

At the Paris Peace Treaty, Finland was classified as an ally with Nazi Germany and ordered to pay reparations.

The country then pursued a policy of neutrality, maintaining a free market economy and democracy despite enjoying a strong relationship with the Soviet Union.

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