NATO Madrid: Baltic nations demand a new garrison of 50,000 troops

Baltic leaders will lobby NATO for tens of thousands of extra troops to defend Europe’s eastern flank at a key summit in Spain today, fearing they are next on Putin‘s hit-list after Ukraine.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania want 50,000 troops to be permanently stationed across their countries to face down a full-scale Russian invasion, replacing a 4,000-strong ‘tripwire’ force that is currently in place.

It comes amid fears that Putin could order his commanders to seize a ‘land corridor’ between Russia’s European enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus along the flashpoint Suwalki gap, cutting off the Baltics from easy reinforcement.

Britain, which already has 1,650 troops stationed in Estonia, would be expected to contribute to ay such force – which would come on top of the 300,000 troops that NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said would be placed on ‘high alert’ earlier this week.

Boris Johnson is expected to use his appearance at the NATO summit in Madrid to pledge extra troops for Estonia, potentially more than doubling current numbers.

NATO leaders are meeting at a crucial time for the alliance, which is scrambling to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Thought Ukraine is not part of the alliance, it is surrounded by members and many NATO countries have been supplying weapons to hold back Russia’s advance.

That has prompted Russia – via its state media propaganda networks – to warn of a ‘de-facto’ war with NATO, which it argues could spiral into a nuclear Third World War.

Poland, which shares a long land border with Ukraine, has been reinforced with NATO troops and has been rapidly buying up latest-generation American weaponry in recent months to try and deter Russia from attacking.

The Baltic states – long viewed as NATO’s Achilles heel – are now also ramping up calls for reinforcements to fend off any threat of attack.

Kyllike Sillaste-Elling, head of NATO relations at Estonia’s foreign ministry, told The Independent: ‘We need a new, more robust posture that will significantly strengthen the deterrence and defence of the eastern flank.

‘Putin is not deterred. We should look at what Putin has been saying in his strategic aims including mentioning the former Soviet Union.

‘As a direct neighbour we can’t just overlook those statements. We are small, we are located far northeast next to Russia. We don’t have anywhere to retreat to, we have nowhere to go. That is why we need to have as much in place as possible.’

Fears over the Suwalki Gap ramped up last week, when Lithuania – one of the Baltic states – stopped Russia moving goods across its territory, in line with EU sanctions.

The Lithuanian route was a key supply line between Belarus, a close ally of Russia, and Kaliningrad – an enclave of Russian territory on the Baltic Sea.

The Suwalki Gap links Belarus and Kaliningrad, running through the territory of both Lithuania and Poland who are NATO member states.

They fear Putin could launch a lightning assault to occupy the territory, reopening Kaliningrad’s supply lines whilst also cutting off the Baltic states from mainland Europe and making reinforcement much harder.

That is why they are lobbying NATO to move sufficient forces into the region to hold back a Russian invasion now, rather than wait until an attack is already underway to deploy it armies.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February this year, NATO had around 3,700 troops stationed across Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia as part of a so-called ‘tripwire’ force.

Though the force is far too small to defeat Russia in combat, its goal is to hold up any invasion for long enough that much larger forces – such as the 300,000 ‘high alert’ troops – can be rushed into the fight.

But Baltic leaders fear the reinforcements would arrive too late – after their countries had been swallowed by Russia – leaving the alliance with the difficult decision to try to liberate them, or accept the new status quo.

Though the risk of a Russian attack while fighting is ongoing in Ukraine is viewed as low, leaders say it has to be taken seriously.

Viktorija Starych-Samuoliene, a Lithuania expert and co-founder of the Council on Geostrategy, told The Times: ‘You can’t discount the possibility that Russia will strike.

‘The Suwalki Gap really is the easiest target. It’s the soft underbelly of NATO. 

‘The biggest mistake a policymaker can make is just to completely dismiss the possibility of something like this happening.’

Russia has already begun menacing Lithuania, with hacker group Killnet launching a days-long cyberattack on the country that began last week and has targeted its communications, energy and financial sectors.

Killnet is not officially linked to the Russian state, though its activities are thought to be tacitly condoned by the government.

Lithuanian social media was also flooded with fake videos and news reports that suggested America was preparing to suspend the country from NATO’s Article 5 pledge – meaning the alliance would not come to its defence if it was attacked.

Leaders, who began arriving in Madrid for the summit yesterday, said last night that strengthening defences against Russia is the alliance’s top priority.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said as he arrived for talks Wednesday that NATO needed to learn ‘the lessons of the last few months and the need for NATO to revise its posture on its eastern flank.’

Polish President Andrzej Duda said NATO’s commitment to greatly increase its rapid reaction force for members nearest to Russia will make Europe ‘safer.’

He said: ‘Russia is a threat for Europe and not only for Europe, but for all of NATO.’

Talks were given an early boost when Turkey dropped its opposition for Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, themselves fearful of a Russian invasion.

President Erdogan had been opposing the move due to what he said was Finland and Sweden’s support for Kurdish ‘terrorist groups’, but backed down last night after weeks of lobbying – saying he ‘got what he wanted’ from them.

It means the two Scandinavian nations are almost certain to rapidly join the alliance, bringing with them advanced weaponry and tens of thousands of troops that are crucially located just across the Baltic Sea.

‘I am pleased to announce we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO,’ Stoltenberg said.

‘Turkey, Finland and Sweden have signed a memorandum that addresses Turkey’s concerns, including around arms exports and the fight against terrorism,’ he added.